Black, Blue, and Ornery: When analytics and intuitions collide

By
Updated: December 3, 2013
This photo from Chicagobears.com accurately sums up the mood at the end of the Bears 23-20 (OT) loss to the Minnesota Vikings.

This photo from Chicagobears.com accurately sums up the mood at the end of the Bears 23-20 (OT) loss to the Minnesota Vikings.

Good morning, folks! Welcome to the Water Cooler Sports Black, Blue, and Ornery, your source for NFC North News on this Tuesday, December 3rd, 2013.

One thing still buzzing around the Bears camp following the 23-20 overtime loss to the Minnesota Vikings was the controversial decision of head coach Marc Trestman to attempt a 47-yard field goal on a second and seven to win the game.

Trestman addressed the media Monday and defended his decision with the following:

We made a collective decision that once we got (inside the 30), there was complete agreement and no discussion on the matter. We were second-and-7 and again, we were in the middle of the field well within Robbie’s distance. And the decision is not anything that I regret. . . . I don’t regret that I have to take accountability for it. But I do.

I didn’t do it from an analytics standpoint. I did it from having been around Robbie the entire year. And knowing how he kicks the ball and watching him kick in practice, I had no doubt that he was going to make the kick.

Trestman has certainly given us fans and analysts things to discuss this season in terms of game management and football philosophy. From the field goal decision on Sunday, to not using his timeouts at the end of the game against the Baltimore Ravens (a game Chicago won in overtime), to many fourth-down conversion calls all over the field.

If you open up the NFL Football for Dummies manual (okay, I made that up, but pretend a book does exist), it probably says it’s wise to run another play, attempt to get additional yardage, and then kick the field goal on third down — exactly what the Bears did at home against the Ravens to win.

Ultimately, Trestman didn’t want to chance a negative play or penalty, which is exactly what had happened to the Vikings the series earlier, and had total confidence in Gould making the field goal. Unfortunately, Gould didn’t and the fans and media have swarmed.

Bottom line: if Gould does make the field goal, we aren’t discussing this much or criticizing Trestman.

I personally don’t have much of an issue with the decision. Gould is usually very accurate from that distance and had kicked the ball great on his other three attempts, even though one was a 66-yard hope-and-prayer attempt at the end of regulation that came up a bit short. Gould was kicking indoors in ideal conditions on the road, and the way the Chicago defense was playing, I can understand Trestman simply wanting to make the kick to get the heck out of there.

People will remember that a missed field goal lost the game, but a proper review of the game would show the Bears squandered many chances to win in all three phases. Such is life for an NFL head coach and place kicker.

Quote of the day:

Music is a higher revelation than all wisdom and philosophy.

–Ludwig van Beethoven

Dancer and actress Jenna Dewan turns XX today.

Dancer and actress Jenna Dewan turns 33 today.

And on this day in history:

  • 1818 - Illinois was admitted as the 21st state of the Union. They also are home to the best NFL football team of all time.
  • 1931 – Alka-Seltzer® was sold for the first time. Enjoyed by NFL fans everywhere since then.
  • 1997 – Pierce Brosnan received a star on the Hollywood Walk of Fame. I still think he was the best James Bond actor.

We also have some great birthdays to celebrate today!

  • Ozzy Osbourne (65) - He gained fame as the lead singer of Black Sabbath and became known as the Prince of Darkness and the Godfather of Heavy Metal.
  • Julianne Moore (53) - Beautiful and versatile actress who appeared in Boogie Nights and Far from Heaven.
  • Jenna Dewan (33) - Dancer who gained fame for her roles in Step Up and Take the Lead.

NFC North News

I thought I knew what provocation was
I thought I knew what provocation was
I’ve eaten from the insane root that imprisons reason

It’s in my stomach like fire, like cancer
Like a knife I’ve been gunshot
I gotta let it go

Goddamn, nowhere place to be
Dying deep inside of me
Always standing on the inside looking out
Can’t break a heart so strong with pride
It’s more than just being alive
I linked the rule with you, I’m out!

Detroit Lions

Chris McCosky of The Detroit News notes that the Detroit Lions on Monday, one being Havard “Kickalicious” Rugland. The Lions decided against signing any of the kickers and will continue on with the struggling David Akers.

Tim Twentyman of DetroitLions.com presents his : the Philadelphia Eagles.

Chicago Bears

Mark Potash of the Chicago Sun-Times brings us his ”1“ from the Chicago Bears’ loss to the Vikings.

Charlie Roumeliotis of CSNChicago.com reports that head coach Marc Trestman’s decision to attempt a game-winning attempt on second down and seven. Cutler went into detail of his defense during his weekly ESPN 1000 radio show on Monday.

Chicago Bears head coach Marc Trestman reacts to placekicker Robbie Gould missing what would have been a game-winning (and NFL recordsetting) 68-yard field goal.

Green Bay Packers

On this video from NFL.com, NFL media insider Ian Rapoport discusses the chances of Green Bay Packers quarterback still this season.

Pete Dougherty of the Green Bay Press-Gazette notes that the Packers on Monday. The Packers were in need of running back help after putting rookie running back Johnathan Franklin on injured reserve with a concussion.

Minnesota Vikings

According to Brian Hall of Fox Sports North, Minnesota Vikings head coach Leslie Frazier for this Sunday’s game at the Baltimore Ravens.

Mike Wobschall of Vikings.com presents his “,” discussing how the Vikings were able to knock off the Chicago Bears this past Sunday.

Actress Amanda Sigfreid turns 28 today.

Actress Amanda Seyfried turns 28 today.

About the author(s)

A passionate Chicago Bears fan, Jason Nardiello writes the Black, Blue and Ornery column for Water Cooler Sports. At age 36, he's somewhat technologically behind the curve and remembers being able to navigate through the 1990's without a cell phone. He's an admitted Jay Cutler apologist and isn't sorry for it. He can be reached for comment at .

3157 comments
Kuato Face
Kuato Face moderator

Best image of Sara Jessica Parker ever. Enjoy SDL.

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jordyjumphere
jordyjumphere

Did anyone see before the last Pack/lion game Rodgers asking Stafford about his side arm delivery and laughing about it.

FalconsFan0125
FalconsFan0125 moderator

I feel like because the Falcons are in a unique situation, they should take advantage. How many teams that have a franchise Top 10 QB and good skill position players have finished with a top 5 draft pick? The Falcons have a really good chance at adding some good talent to set this team for the future years (yes plural) of contention. Tanking may not be good for perennial losers, but these Falcons are anything but perennial losers (they USED to be, but lets leave the past in the past). Its their first bad season under this regime. They already know how to win, but they haven’t been able to this year due to things beyond their control. They may not get a high draft pick again for a while because their problems are relatively easy to fix. I expect Matty ice and the Falcons of 2008-2012 to return next year, this time adversity tested and ready. The Falcons need to take this opportunity to potentially set them for the future! It may not come again for a while.

Brick finger
Brick finger

Afternoon all...

Is "shellacking" the descriptor I need for yesterday?

Niners_Never_Die
Niners_Never_Die

You need to be careful changing screen names... I almost couldn't figure out what the hell it was.

Building With Clay is back SON
Building With Clay is back SON

All that needed to happen for the Lions to win the division is every other team lose their QB and have the division be the worst that it's been in a decade or 2.

LKP called all of that happening.

Deal with it.

Pat Fenis, Esq.
Pat Fenis, Esq. moderator

 Your troll hasn't been the same since Thanksgiving.

jmac3444
jmac3444

 elite players don't get benched for being shit

Panthers > Saints
Panthers > Saints

  Yall will be back next year you just need a Oline and Dline it doesn't  matter how good your  skill players are if you can't protect and get the to Qb 

SDL
SDL

 

To be determined.  Not ruled out yet.  He wants to play.

MM says it will be a medical decision

LKP 40 10
LKP 40 10

 You better beat Falcons anyway. 

FalconsFan0125
FalconsFan0125 moderator

How about "Awesome", "Well-deserved" and "Glorious"?

LKP 40 10
LKP 40 10

 Lions beat healthy Bears and healthish Pack. Rodgers makes no difference. All you had to do was win with Flynn. You turds clamor all the time about Flynn 2011. You got owned

LKP 40 10
LKP 40 10

 Like 2010 to allow the Pack to make the playoffs. Stafford and Favre had to go down

FalconsFan0125
FalconsFan0125 moderator

Yep. poor lines (and injuries) can completely destroy a team. 

FalconsFan0125
FalconsFan0125 moderator

They have 6 ft 8 Levine Toliolo waiting behind Tony G. They need to play him to see if he is ready to take over the starting spot next year. I expect Smitty to give him some more playing time. 

Brick finger
Brick finger

I do not want to talk about those damn hags...

jmac3444
jmac3444

  healthish packers? lololololololololololololololololololololololololol

SDL
SDL

 

It ain't over til it's over.

The LOLoins are certainly capable of fucking their season in the ass

jordyjumphere
jordyjumphere

   6 for moobs the last 2 games with a fumble for TD

LKP 40 10
LKP 40 10

 3 picks for Foles on Sunday

FalconsFan0125
FalconsFan0125 moderator

Nick Foles is a man on fire. 19 TDs and 0 picks. It won't be easy. 

LKP 40 10
LKP 40 10

 Lions will win next 8 this season

jordyjumphere
jordyjumphere

   4 weeks to fuck it up. New Lions motto

LKP 40 10
LKP 40 10

   Defense son. 40 points

jmac3444
jmac3444

   excuses are weak just like the lions chances of success in the playoffs

LKP 40 10
LKP 40 10

   And Pittsburgh will have 500 against Pack D

LKP 40 10
LKP 40 10

   Only 50 by Brown against Houston. 2 catches on 4 targets. He slipped in the rain on the Brown td

jmac3444
jmac3444

   rothelisburger threw for 367 yards on that shit secondary. brown had 147 of it himself

LKP 40 10
LKP 40 10

   And he rebounded. Lions are stacked at CB. Good game at Chicago too. Injured for long TD against Bucs. Houston is elite. I won this

jmac3444
jmac3444

   he was so shitty he was benched. deal with it

LKP 40 10
LKP 40 10

  And then he bounced back against Dallas

LKP 40 10
LKP 40 10

   2 catches 95 yards for Green. One was a fluke double move. Cincy hadn't shown that all year on tape

jmac3444
jmac3444

   "I put this loss on me, not anybody else," said Houston, who was benched for part of the game.

----

what a star

LKP 40 10
LKP 40 10

   False he allowed the long play and only 2 other passes caught on him. 13 and 12 yards. You fail again

jmac3444
jmac3444

   what about aj green who whipped houston all fucking day. getting 155 yards on 6 catches and a td

LKP 40 10
LKP 40 10

   No he didn't. Mathis son. Houston didn't allow a catch on Williams all game

jmac3444
jmac3444

   Bryant had 3 catches for 72 yards and 2 tds vs houston in the detroit game. what a star

LKP 40 10
LKP 40 10

   And Barclay was replaced by a first round pick in Sherrod. Who sucks. Bust

LKP 40 10
LKP 40 10

   Houston is elite. See Dallas game

LKP 40 10
LKP 40 10

  Barclay only missed 6 snaps. You lie again

jmac3444
jmac3444

  houston has blown so many plays this year that his head is still spinning

LKP 40 10
LKP 40 10

   Nope he sucked and got benched

LKP 40 10
LKP 40 10

  Lions missing WR3, CB1(trumps all your injuries on offense) and DE2. Plus FB1

LKP 40 10
LKP 40 10

   Barclay played and got beat to a pulp, RG maybe with Lang switching. He doesn't even know his own team

LKP 40 10
LKP 40 10

  Pack were terrible in 2010. Lions 2010>Packers 2010. Proven at Ford Field with Stanton