Testing how well Quarterback Win Expectancy (QWE) holds up in real life

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Updated: July 16, 2013

Comparing a quarterback’s win expectancy (QWE) to his real-life win/loss record can give us insight into what kind of supporting cast the quarterback has.

Recently we introduced the concept of quarterback win expectancy (QWE), which we explained is a measure of how many games a quarterback can be expected to win over a specific period based on his individual performance as measured by the complete quarterback rating (CQBR) he posts in those games.

As we have previously shown, a quarterback can be said to have a specific probability of winning a game that is proportional to his CQBR for that game. If we add together those win probabilities together over a span of games, we can calculate his QWE for those games. We can then look at how many games he actually won, and if there is a discrepancy, hopefully make some conclusions as to why his actual win percentage varies from his QWE.

Imagine, for example, a situation in which a quarterback produced a CQBR of 61.7 for eight consecutive games. His QWE would be 0.5, meaning that he would be expected to win 50 percent (four) of those games. If he in fact only won two (25 percent) of those games, we would assume that some other unit on the team — most likely the defense — let him down and could start looking for explanations. Conversely, if his team actually won seven (87.5 percent)  of those games, we would assume that the defense had significantly outperformed the quarterback.

So how well does QWE actually hold up in the real world?

About the author(s)

Rourke Douglas Decker covers the Green Bay Packers beat for Water Cooler Sports. He resides with his family in the Twin Cities. He can be reached for questions or comments at . Connect with .

1852 comments
Mr. Horse
Mr. Horse

Green Bay Johnny Jolly killing the workouts at this morn. …

matt_vfalcon32
matt_vfalcon32

best trash talker in the history of sports...chael sonnen..that guy makes me laugh like hell when he talks!

matt_vfalcon32
matt_vfalcon32

But I gotta say, I love me some frankie edgar..if I spelled that right, he can take a beating from hell and just keep going and wins the fights somehow, even against aldo I thought he won that one.

matt_vfalcon32
matt_vfalcon32

And I can't stand to watch GSP fights..they are so freaking boring, he just takes them to the ground to score points..hits them a few times and doesn't knock anyone out.

matt_vfalcon32
matt_vfalcon32

Jon Jones is the new anderson silva....but, I've never really seen jones get hit before, I would like to see him take a couple of good hits and see how he reacts.

matt_vfalcon32
matt_vfalcon32

 did you know that anderson silva wants to fight against roy jones jr.  I mean there is no place for a boxer in the ring with a mma fighter..plus jones is like 45 and has brain damage.

LKP 40 10
LKP 40 10

Holy shit are the Eagles a different team. 3-4 alignment Eagles is just weird to see

robertj72
robertj72

WEll I wasted far to much time...got to get some work done...Peace.

FalconsFan0125
FalconsFan0125 moderator

This summer has been great. I haven't gone anywhere, but I got my shit together. 

curtisfryer_p
curtisfryer_p

Mr. Horse do you like to look at pics of guys working out?

BearsSaveLives
BearsSaveLives moderator

He's just stirring a big pitcher of purple drank.

bp.
bp.

 Pretty good at it, considering its an act often enough.  

bp.
bp.

 I find him just as boring as GSP.  Mostly dancing and peppering while not landing with power, and not taking power shots because his movement is so good.  For a while I enjoyed it, but not really anymore.

curtisfryer_p
curtisfryer_p

his nose starts bleeding before he ever gets to the ring...lol

bp.
bp.

 He used to be an offensive guru.  He was enjoyable to watch.  Now he is a defensive guru.  He is not enjoyable to watch. But he is the most complete fighter in the game.  No one ever bests him virtually anywhere.

smtate91
smtate91

 He has gotten too cautious since he has had the belt too long. He just needs someone good enough to challenge him and make him try to finish.

aciddragon
aciddragon

 that i agree with, he is great at what he does , but it doesn't make for entertaining fights 

aciddragon
aciddragon

 i thought it was supposed to be a boxing match, not an mma fight 

falconsriseup19
falconsriseup19

  yeah but a lot of people want to fight a lot of people lol. he knows itll never happen

matt_vfalcon32
matt_vfalcon32

 I got a girlfriend, finally got laid after awhile and it's been all good so far.

BearsSaveLives
BearsSaveLives moderator

Now that you've collected it, what are you going to do with it?

Mr. Horse
Mr. Horse

 Don't you have some black eyed peas to pick?

BearsSaveLives
BearsSaveLives moderator

HOW DARE YOU!?!?! Only Packers players.

Mr. Horse
Mr. Horse

 Too much Falcon dick this morning. 

aciddragon
aciddragon

 still more fun to watch than either of the Diaz brothers 

aciddragon
aciddragon

 well he just gets it out of the way early, 

matt_vfalcon32
matt_vfalcon32

  I agree...but if ufc want's better ratings I think he needs to step it up a little and start knocking people out.

matt_vfalcon32
matt_vfalcon32

  agreed...but with that div. who's gonna challenge him?  he's not gonna fight silva at a catchweight fight.

tmonson78
tmonson78 moderator

  

Jon "Bones" Jones.

the MMA fighter.

Not Roy Jones, Jr the ex-boxer.

matt_vfalcon32
matt_vfalcon32

  yeah, I think you're right...but silva would still whoop his ass I believe.

LKP 40 10
LKP 40 10

  Their secondary is a nightmare now. Carey Williams and Bradley Fletcher. WTF

smtate91
smtate91

  Nobody is, they were special...Once in a lifetime.

FalconsFan0125
FalconsFan0125 moderator

 Gonna keep it on someone's door step and ding dong ditch those clowns. 

matt_vfalcon32
matt_vfalcon32

  oh god, the diaz brothers are so freaking full of themselves..

bp.
bp.

  Diaz Bros: more overrated than LKP's take on Stafford.

curtisfryer_p
curtisfryer_p

yeah I heard him say it even happens when he is training

CONCHS333 IS BACK BITCHES
CONCHS333 IS BACK BITCHES

 lol I picked out a name for your team you can keep it or change it but I think it suits you

curtisfryer_p
curtisfryer_p

yeah I got it...my work computer wont let me on...I will go there when I get to the house

smtate91
smtate91

  Nobody in that division is talented enough to make him feel like an underdog and have to go reckless to win. Not saying he can't lose, but I can't think of any in his division that would force him to fight offensively like he used to.

aciddragon
aciddragon

 not too sure, i don't know how good Silva's boxing is, it is a totally different discipline. the difference between being a great MMA boxer and a great boxer are two totally different things. 

matt_vfalcon32
matt_vfalcon32

  well I've been in nursing school for over a year and haven't had time for any woman...so it's been nice now that I got back into the swing of things.